Here are 3 onchain indicators that can show you how overheated the market is without looking at the price

Hey,

ever noticed how BTC at $63k can feel totally different from one week to the next?

Now you might wonder why.

Sure, market sentiment is a big factor, but there’s more to it.

Think about this: When BTC was at $16k in 2017, everyone was euphoric.

Fast-forward to 2022, and BTC hits $16k again, and suddenly, everyone's in despair.

Even though the price was the same, the onchain metrics painted a vastly different picture.

In 2017 they were overheated and in 2022 they were oversold.

The biggest mistake most investors make is that they never look at onchain metrics.

That’s why I will share my top 3 on-chain metrics with you so that you can identify the best time to sell near the peak.

The three metrics can help you time the market without needing to look at the price of BTC are:

• MVRV
• NUPL
• Puell Multiple

Let’s start with MVRV

1️⃣ MVRV (Market value realized value)

This metric measures whether Bitcoin is overvalued compared to its historical average.

If MVRV exceeds 2, it indicates that the current price is much higher than what most holders paid, suggesting that we are moving towards the peak.

However, keep in mind the MVRV has exceeded 4.0 in 2021 which shows it can go much higher than expected.

You can look at the current BTC MVRV value [here](#).

2️⃣ NUPL (Net unrealized profits and loss)

NUPL identifies the overall market sentiment by showing the proportion of Bitcoin holdings in profit or loss.

A NUPL value in the "greed" zone (above 0.7) is very strongly correlated with market tops.

The higher it goes the stronger the sell signal.

You can look at the current NUPL value [here](#).

3️⃣ Puell Multiple

This onchain metric compares the daily earnings of Bitcoin miners against the average over the past year.

View the Puell Multiple chart [here](#).

Here’s how to use the Puell Multiple:

Puell Multiple > 2.5 = You should sell up to 25%+ of your BTC/alts on upward moves. This will give you a lot of capital to buy back during capitulation events.

Puell Multiple > 5 = You should be selling 75%+ of your BTC portfolio. Furthermore, you must set sell orders for your altcoins, as they often pump after BTC pumps.

If you want a more in-depth read with charts and links then read this version here.